Week Ahead Archives - Binary Option Strategy
A look into the week ahead in the financial markets and a look into the fundamental events shaping the week.
Key Economic Events (6th May-10th May)
Key Economic Events
United States
MONDAY: Flash crash anniversary
TUESDAY: 3-yr note auction, consumer credit, Noka annual meeting
WEDNESDAY: MBA mortgage applications, Fed’s Stein speaks, oil inventories, 10-yr note auction, BofA shareholder meeitng
THURSDAY: BoE announcement, Fed’s Lacker speaks, jobless claims, wholesale inventories, natural gas inventories, 30-yr bond auction, Fed’s Plosser speaks, Fed balance sheet/money supply, Barclays’s investor meeting, Ford annual meeting, weekly rail numbers, chain store sales
FRIDAY: Fed’s Evans speaks, Bernanke speaks, Fed’s George speaks, Treasury budget, G-8 meeting
World
Monday: PMI indices for the service sector of the Eurozone’s states will be published (final estimate for April), the final estimate of the composite Eurozone PMI and the Eurozone retail sales index.
Tuesday: The industrial production index in France, expected a decrease of 0.1%, manufacturing orders in Germany and Consumer credit data from the U.S.
Wednesday: Industrial production index in Germany with an expected decrease of 0.5% (versus an increase of 2.3% during the previous month), the Consumer Price Index in China with an expected increase of 2.3% over the previous year and the Producer Price Index, with an expected decrease by the same magnitude.
Friday: Trade balance in Germany, Chinese import and export data for April, Japan’s adjusted current account.
Economic Events for this Week (29 April- 4th May)
Calendar of Economic Events:
MONDAY: Personal income & outlays, pending home sales, Dallas Fed mfg survey,
TUESDAY: Employment cost index, S&P case-shiller home price index, Chicago PMI, consumer confidence, farm prices,
WEDNESDAY: Mortgage applications, ADP employment report, PMI manufacturing report, ISM mfg index, construction spending, oil inventories, FOMC mtg announcement, auto sales,
THURSDAY: Challenger job-cut report, ECB announcement, international trade, jobless claims, productivity & costs, natural gas inventories, Fed balance sheet/money supply, DirecTV shareholder mtg, UBS shareholder mtg, UPS shareholder mtg,
FRIDAY: Nonfarm payrolls, factory orders, ISM non-mfg index
Economic Events Calendar 25th March-29th March
This weeks economic events calendar, including Good Friday where banks are open but exchanges are closed.
| Monday Mar 25 | Tuesday Mar 26 | Wednesday Mar 27 | Thursday Mar 28 | Friday Mar 29 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Week Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET | ICSC-Goldman Store Sales 7:45 AM ET | MBA Purchase Applications 7:00 AM ET | GDPhttp://www.binaryoptionstrategy.com/glossary/economic-events/gross-domestic-product-gdp.html 8.30 ET | Good Friday Public Holiday. Banks open Exchanges closed |
| 3-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET | Durabe Goods Orders 830 AM ET | Pending Home Sales 10 AM ET | Jobless Claims 8.30 AM ET | Personal Income and Outlays 8:30 AM ET |
| 6-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET | Redbook 8:55 AM ET Weekly data release of sales at chain stores, discounters, and department stores. | EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET | Corporate Profits 8.30 AM ET | Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM ET |
| Ben Bernanke Speaks Fed reserve chairman and IMF Chief Economist & BOE Gov Mervyn King at London School of Economics LSE discuss lessons from the crash | New Home Sales 10:00 AM ET | Charles Evans Speaks Chicago Fed Reserve Bank President Charles Evans briefing in Chicago. | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index 9:45 AM ET | |
| Consumer Confidence 10AM ET | Farm Prices 3PM ET | EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET | ||
| Fed Balance Sheet 4:30 PM ET | ||||
| Money Supply 4:30 PM ET | ||||
This Week’s Economic Events Calendar
What’s happening this week?
| Monday Mar 18 | Tuesday Mar 19 | Wednesday Mar 20 | Thursday Mar 21 | Friday Mar 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Housing Market Index 10:00 AM ET | FOMC Meeting Begins | MBA Purchase Applications 7:00 AM ET | Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET | |
| 4-Week Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET | ICSC-Goldman Store Sales [Bullet7:45 AM ET | EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET | PMI Manufacturing Index Flash 8:58 AM ET | |
| 6-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET | Housing Starts 8:30 AM ET | FOMC Meeting Announcement 2:00 PM ET | FHFA House Price Index 9:00 AM ET | |
| 3-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET | Redbook 8:55 AM ET | FOMC Forecasts 2:00 PM ET | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index 9:45 AM ET | |
| 6-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET | 4-Week Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET | Existing Home Sales 10:00 AM ET | ||
| Leading Indicators 10:00 AM ET | ||||
| EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET | ||||
| 3-Month 6 month 2-Year 7- Year Bill/Note Announcement 11:00 AM ET | ||||
| Fed Balance Sheet 4:30 PM ET | ||||
| Money Supply 4:30 PM ET | ||||
Weekly Economic Events Calendar Mar 11-15th
Here’s the main economic events for this week.
| Monday Mar 11 | Tuesday Mar 12 | Wednesday Mar 13 | Thursday Mar 14 | Friday Mar 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Week Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET | ICSC-Goldman Store Sales 7:45 AM ET | MBA Purchase Applications 7:00 AM ET | Weekly Bill Settlement | Consumer Price Index 8:30 AM ET CPI |
| 3-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET | Redbook 8:55 AM ET | Retail Sales 8:30 AM ET | Jobless claims 8:30 AM ET | Empire State Mfg Survey 8:30 AM ET |
| 6-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET | 4 Week Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET | Import and Export Prices 8:30 AM ET | Producer Price Index 8:30 AM ET | Treasury International Capital 9:00 AM ET |
| 3-Year Note Auction 1:00 PM ET | Business Inventories 10:00 AM ET | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index 9:45 AM ET | Industrial Production 9:15 AM ET |
|
| Treasury Budget 2:00 PM ET | EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET | EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET | Consumer Sentiment 10:00 AM ET |
|
| Treasury STRIPS 3:00 PM ET | 3-Month Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET | |||
| 10-Yr Note Auction 1:00 PM ET | 6-Month Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET | |||
| 10-Yr TIPS Announcement 11:00 AM ET | ||||
| 30-Yr Bond Auction 1:00 PM ET | ||||
| Fed Balance Sheet 4:30 PM ET | ||||
| Money Supply 4:30 PM ET | ||||
Economic Indicators from Week 4th-8th March
This Week’s Economic Indicators
| Monday Mar 4 | Tuesday Mar 5 | Wednesday Mar 6 | Thursday Mar 7 | Friday Mar 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Week Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET | ICSC-Goldman Store Sales 7:45 AM ET | MBA Purchase Applications 7:00 AM ET | Weekly Bill Settlement | Employment Situation 8:30 AM ET |
| 3-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET | Redbook 8:55 AM ET | ADP Employment Report 8:15 AM ET | Chain Store Sales | Wholesale Trade 10:00 AM ET |
| 6-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET | ISM Non Mfg Index 10:00 AM ET | Factory Orders 10:00 AM ET | Challenger Job-Cut Report 7:30 AM ET | |
| TD Ameritrade OMX 12.:30 PM ET | 4 Week Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET | EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET | International Trade 8:30 AM ET | |
| 52 Week Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET | Beige Book 2:00 PM ET | Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET | ||
| Treasury STRIPS 3:00 PM ET | Productivity and Costs 8:30 AM ET | |||
| Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Consumer Comfort 9:45 AM ET | ||||
| Quarterly Services Survey 10:00 AM ET | ||||
| EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET | ||||
| 3-Month Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET | ||||
| 6-Month Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET | ||||
| 3-Yr Note Announcement 11:00 AM ET | ||||
| 10-Yr Note Announcement 11:00 AM ET | ||||
| Consumer Credit 3:00 PM ET | ||||
| Fed Balance Sheet 4:30 PM ET |
Economic Events Week 25th Feb- 1st March
Take a look at the economic events for this week to get an idea of how the markets will look.
| Mon Feb 18 | Tuesday Feb 19 | Wed Feb 20 | Thursday Feb 21 | Friday Feb 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fed National Activity Index 8:30 AM ET | ICSC-Goldman Store Sales 7:45 AM ET | MBA Purchase Applications 7:00 AM ET | Weekly Bill Settlement | Motor Vehicle Sales |
| Dallas Fed Mfg Survey 10:30 AM ET | Redbook 8:55 AM ET | Durable Goods Orders | GDP 8:30 AM ET | Personal Income and Outlays 8:30 AM ET |
| 4-Week Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET | FHFA House Price Index 9:00 AM ET | Ben Bernanke Speaks 10:00 AM ET | Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET | PMI Manufacturing Index 8:58 AM ET |
| 3-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET | S&P Case-Shiller HPI 9:00 AM ET | Pending Home Sales Index 10:00 AM ET | Chicago PMI 9:45 AM ET | Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM ET |
| 6-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET | New Home Sales 10:00 AM ET | EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index 9:45 AM ET | Construction Spending 10:00 AM ET |
| 2-Yr Note Auction 1:00 PM ET | Consumer Confidence 10:00 AM ET | 7-Yr Note Auction 1:00 PM ET | Existing Home Sales 10:00 AM ET | |
| Dennis Lockhard Speaks 7:00 PM ET | Ben Bernanke Speaks 10:00 AM ET | EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET | ||
| Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index [Bullet10:00 AM ET | Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index [Bullet11:00 AM ET | |||
| State Street Investor Confidence Index [Bullet10:00 AM ET | EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET | |||
| 4-Week Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET | 3-Month Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET | |||
| 5-Yr Note Auction 1:00 PM ET | 6-Month Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET | |||
| 52-Week Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET | ||||
| Farm Prices [Bullet3:00 PM ET | ||||
| Richard Fisher Speaks 4:30 PM ET | ||||
| Fed Balance Sheet 4:30 PM ET |
Economic Events this Week Feb 18-22
Mon Feb 18 Tuesday Feb 19 Wed Feb 20 Thursday Feb 21 Friday Feb 22
US Public Holiday: Presidents' Day Housing Market Index
10:00 am ETMBA Purchase Applications
7:00 AM ETWeekly Bill Settlement Jerome Powell speaks
Markets Closed Today 4-Week Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ETICSC-Goldman Store Sales
7:45 AM ETConsumer Price Index
8:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ETHousing Starts
8.30 AM ETJobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ETProducer Price Index PMI Manufacturing Index Flash
8:58 AM ET
Redbook Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
FOMC Minutes
2:00 PM ETPhiladelphia Fed Survey
10:00 AM ET
Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
11:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
6-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
James Bullard Speaks
12.30 PM ET
John Williams Speaks
1:00 PM ET
Richard Fisher Speaks
9:15 PM ET
Economic Events for Week 11th Feb
Take a look at this week’s economic events to understand where the markets may show volatility. Particularly useful for binary options traders.
| Mon Feb 4 | Tuesday Feb 5 | Wed Feb 6 | Thursday Feb 7 | Friday Feb 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Week Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET | NFIB Small Business Optimism Index [Bullet7:30 AM ET | MBA Purchase Applications 7:00 AM ET | Weekly Bill Settlement 52-Week Bill Settlement | Empire State Mfg Survey 8:30 AM ET |
| 3-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET | ICSC-Goldman Store Sales 7:45 AM ET | Retail Sales 8:30 AM ET | Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET | Treasury International Capital 9:00 AM ET |
| 6-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET | Esther George Speaks 11:30 AM ET | Import and Export Prices 8:30 AM ET | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index 9:45 AM ET | Industrial Production 9:15 AM ET |
| 4-Week Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET | Business Inventories 10:00 AM ET | EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET | Sandra Pianalto Speaks 9:50 AM ET |
|
| 3-Yr Note Auction 1:00 PM ET | EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET | 3-Month Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET | Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM ET |
|
| Treasury Budget 2:00 PM ET | James Bullard Speaks 11:10 AM ET | 6-Month Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET | E-Commerce Retail Sales 10:00 AM ET |
|
| Charles Plosser Speaks 7:30 PM ET | 10-Yr Note Auction 1:00 PM ET | 30-Yr TIPS Announcement 11:00 AM ET | ||
| James Bullard Speaks 12:50 PM ET | ||||
| 30-Yr Bond Auction 1:00 PM ET | ||||
| Fed Balance Sheet 4:30 PM ET | ||||
| Money Supply 4:30 PM ET | ||||
Economic Events for Week Feb 4th to Feb 8th
| Mon Feb 4 | Tuesday Feb 5 | Wed Feb 6 | Thursday Feb 7 | Friday Feb 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Factory Orders 10:00 AM ET | ICSC-Goldman Store Sales 7:45 AM ET | MBA Purchase Applications 7:00 AM ET | Weekly Bill Settlement 52-Week Bill Settlement | International Trade 8:30 AM ET |
| 4-Week Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET | Redbook 8:55 AM ET | Treasury Refunding Announcement 9:00 AM ET | Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET | Wholesale Trade 10:00 AM ET |
| 3-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET | ISM Non-Mfg Index 10:00 AM ET | 3-Yr Note Announcement 9:00 AM ET | Productivity and Costs 8:30 AM ET | |
| 6-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET | 4-Week Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET | 10-Yr Note Announcement 9:00 AM ET | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index 9:45 AM ET | |
| 52-Week Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET | 30-Yr Bond Announcement 9:00 AM ET | EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET | ||
| EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET | 3-Month Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET | |||
| Treasury STRIPS 3:00 PM ET | 6-Month Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET | |||
| Consumer Credit 3:00 PM ET | ||||
| Fed Balance Sheet 4:30 PM ET | ||||
| Fed Balance Sheet 4:30 PM ET | ||||
| Money Supply 4:30 PM ET | ||||
Economic Events Calendar for The Week Ahead
| Monday Jan 7 | Tuesday Jan 8 | Wednesday Jan 9 | Thursday Jan 10 | Friday Jan 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Week Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET | NFIB Small Business Optimism Index [Bullet7:30 AM ET | Bank Reserve Settlement | Weekly Bill Settlement 52-Week Bill Settlement | International Trade 8:30 AM ET |
| 3-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET | ICSC-Goldman Store Sales 7:45 AM ET | MBA Purchase Applications 7:00 AM ET | Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET | Import and Export Prices 8:30 AM ET |
| 6-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET | Redbook 8:55 AM ET | EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index [Bullet9:45 AM ET | Charles Plosser Speaks 9:30 AM ET |
| Treasury STRIPS 3:00 PM ET | 4-Week Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET | 10-Yr Note Auction 1:00 PM ET | Wholesale Trade 10:00 AM ET | Treasury Budget 2:00 PM ET |
| 52-Week Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET | EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET | |||
| 3-Yr Note Auction 1:00 PM ET | 3-Month Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET 6-Month Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET | |||
| Consumer Credit 3:00 PM ET | Esther George Speaks 12:45 PM ET | |||
| 30-Yr Bond Auction 1:00 PM ET | ||||
| James Bullard Speaks 2:00 PM ET | ||||
| Fed Balance Sheet 4:30 PM ET | ||||
| Money Supply 4:30 PM ET | ||||
| Narayana Kocherlakota Speaks 8:00 PM ET |
Economic news- Data beats but Economies still contracting
ECONOMIC NEWS
The main play on the economic front this past week was to see the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index showing some improvement but still remains in contraction phase at -1.9 which beat market forecasts of -4.1 but this is the fifth straight month where manufacturing in the Philadelphia Fed region has continued to contract. The US existing home sales was also a brighter print at 4.82m also beating market expectations of 4.57m.
ECB’s OMT on hold until there is a request from Spain for EU help most market commentary is focused on EU rates and suggestions that maybe there is a rate cut that could come. Most of the data out of Europe has not been suggesting that the region is improving but it has actually beaten forecasts in most cases. The German ZEW came in at -18.2 above forecasts of -19.2 up from previous -25.5. Also German Flash Manufacturing showing continued contraction at 47.3 better than the 45.4 forecasts but there was a revision downward to the previous figure to 44.7. In short the pressures are still mounting in the region.
THE WEEK AHEAD
Monday: EUR German Ifo Business Climate,
Tuesday: EUR Gfk German Consumer Climate, ECB President Draghi Speaks, USD S&P/CS Composite -20 HPI, USD CB Consumer Confidence, USD Treasury Sec Geithner Speaks
Wednesday: EUR German Prelim CPI, EUR German 10-yr Bond Auction, USD New Home Sales, USD Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday: EUR German Unemployment Change, EUR M3 Money Supply, EUR Italian 10-yr Bond Auction, USD Core Durable Goods Orders, USD Unemployment Claims, USD Final GDP q/q, USD Pending Home Sales, China HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI
Friday: EUR German Retail Sales m/m, EUR CPI Flash Estimates, USD Core PCE Price Index, USD Personal Spending, USD Chicago PMI, USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
Economic news- Data beats but Economies still contracting
ECONOMIC NEWS
The main play on the economic front this past week was to see the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index showing some improvement but still remains in contraction phase at -1.9 which beat market forecasts of -4.1 but this is the fifth straight month where manufacturing in the Philadelphia Fed region has continued to contract. The US existing home sales was also a brighter print at 4.82m also beating market expectations of 4.57m.
ECB’s OMT on hold until there is a request from Spain for EU help most market commentary is focused on EU rates and suggestions that maybe there is a rate cut that could come. Most of the data out of Europe has not been suggesting that the region is improving but it has actually beaten forecasts in most cases. The German ZEW came in at -18.2 above forecasts of -19.2 up from previous -25.5. Also German Flash Manufacturing showing continued contraction at 47.3 better than the 45.4 forecasts but there was a revision downward to the previous figure to 44.7. In short the pressures are still mounting in the region.
THE WEEK AHEAD
Monday: EUR German Ifo Business Climate,
Tuesday: EUR Gfk German Consumer Climate, ECB President Draghi Speaks, USD S&P/CS Composite -20 HPI, USD CB Consumer Confidence, USD Treasury Sec Geithner Speaks
Wednesday: EUR German Prelim CPI, EUR German 10-yr Bond Auction, USD New Home Sales, USD Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday: EUR German Unemployment Change, EUR M3 Money Supply, EUR Italian 10-yr Bond Auction, USD Core Durable Goods Orders, USD Unemployment Claims, USD Final GDP q/q, USD Pending Home Sales, China HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI
Friday: EUR German Retail Sales m/m, EUR CPI Flash Estimates, USD Core PCE Price Index, USD Personal Spending, USD Chicago PMI, USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
Economic news- ECB President Draghi to the Rescue With OMT
ECONOMIC NEWS
This week’s economic landscape brought Europe back in the news as ECB at their monthly press conference announced the “OMT” (Outright Monetary Transactions), which looks to have gained market approval risk assets in the from of stocks and peripheral bond markets surged since the announcement. The ECB has announced unlimited but sterilized bond buys of debt with 0-3 year maturities and only on countries who have requested financial assistance from the EU. Now markets will turn their attention to Spain and Italy to see if they request EU financial assistance.
In the US the macro data including ADP, initial jobless claims and ISM non-manufacturing heightened expectations ahead of this coming weeks FOMC decision as markets are anticipating QE3 from the Fed. The poor Non Farm payrolls data of only 96k verses a market forecast of 123k looks to be the re-enforcer that QE3 is coming to a store near you on September 13.
THE WEEK AHEAD
Monday: China (Tentative) Trade Balance, EUR Sentix Investor Confidence
Tuesday: USD Trade Balance
Wednesday: EUR Italian IP, EUR German Constitutional Court Ruling (Tentative), EUR Industrial Production, USD Crude Inventories, USD 10 year Bond Auction
Thursday: ***FOMC Statement, Fed Funds Rate decision, EUR Italian 10 yr Bond Auction, USD PPI, USD Unemployment Claims, FOMC Projections, FOMC Press conference, USD Budget Balance
Friday: EUR CPI, EUR Core CPI, USD Core CPI, USD Core Retail Sales, USD Retail Sales, USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
Saturday: Eurogroup Meetings
Economic news- ECB no Show at Jackson Hole, Fed clears the way for QE.
ECONOMIC NEWS
The general consensus appears that Fed Chairman Bernanke has opened the way for further easing by stating that it will boost accommodation as needed for growth. All eyes are now focused on this week’s jammed packed economic calendar in order to gauge if the FOMC will pull the trigger on the 13th or whether it will wait until November. Economic data out this past week was by all accounts somewhat confirming what long has been known that the economic situation has deteriorated with the CB Consumer confidence coming in at 60.6 with market forecasts of 65.8 and US unemployment claims continues to worsen. No surprise though on US GDP coming in on forecast of 1.7% q/q
With ECB President Draghi a no show at the Jackson Hole symposium it has sent a message that just maybe this week’s ECB meeting maybe a show stopper. Markets have clearly focused in on US economic news this week.
China’s economic data continues to highlight that their manufacturing is in a deepening contraction this comes with the release of the official manufacturing PMI data which came in at 49.2 below market expectations of 49.8.
THE WEEK AHEAD
Monday: EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI, Italian Manufacturing PMI, (Tentative) ECB President Draghi Speaking
Tuesday: US ISM Manufacturing PMI,
Wednesday: EUR Retail Sales, EUR German 10Yr Bund Auction, USD Revised Nonfarm Productivity
Thursday: EUR French 10Yr Bond Auction, German Factory Orders, ECB Interest Rates Decision, ECB Press Conference, USD ADP Non Farm Employment Change, USD Unemployment Claims, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Crude Oil Inventories
Friday: EUR German Industrial Production, USD Non Farm Employment, USD Unemployment Rate
Saturday: China CPI y/y, China PPI y/y
Economic news- US talks of QE and China also looking to boost a slowing economy
ECONOMIC NEWS
Key news from the US came from FOMC minutes where clearly the Fed is looking at QE as the bias amongst FOMC members clearly sits in the dovish stance with only the perma bull Jeffrey Lacker who is neutral – hawkish in his view. The strength of the US economy remains disappointing with existing home sales figures at 4.47m sales versus a market expectation of 4.52m with it trending back down but still above the September 2010 lows. All eyes on next weeks Case Schiller Index out on Tuesday.
ECB has been concerned, on reports that the ECB is planning to cap peripheral bond yields by promising unlimited purchases of debt on secondary markets. ECB has not denied it but have said it is wrong to speculate on future ECB bond interventions and attention will be paid to ECB’s President Draghi’s speech on this coming Saturday at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
News from China has also highlighted that the world’s second largest economy continues to show weakness in its manufacturing sector as the HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI was 47.8 which is the 10th consecutive month of contraction in Chinese manufacturing which has opened the way for possible further stimulus from Beijing.
THE WEEK AHEAD
Monday: EUR German IFO Business Climate, US FOMC Member Pianalto Speaks
Tuesday: EUR GFK German Consumer Climate, EUR M3 Money Supply, **US S&P / CS Composite-20 HPI, US CB Consumer Confidence
Wednesday: EUR German Preliminary CPI, US Prelim GDP, US Pending Home Sales, US Crude Inventories, US Beige Book
Thursday: EUR German Unemployment Change, EUR Italian 10yr Bond Auction, US Unemployment Claims, US Core PCE Price Index, US Personal Spending, 3 Day Jackson Hole Symposium
Friday: EUR German Retail Sales, EUR CPI Flash Estimate, EUR Unemployment Rate, US Chicago PMI, US Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, *** US Fed Chairman Speaks, China Manufacturing PMI (Fri/Sat)
Saturday: ECB President Draghi Speaks
Economic news- US Consumer Sentiment Rises to Three Month High
ECONOMIC NEWS
The week saw US consumer sentiment rise to a three month high in August largely boosted by retailer’s sales and the low mortgage rates. Consumer’s concerns were over the possibility of higher food price as the US Drought worsens. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment highlighted consumers’ expectations in both short and long term for higher inflation. Philly Fed Manufacturing which was out on Thursday of last week was worse than expected but has improved from the this year’s low point which was back in June where the index registered -16.6.
Bottom line markets seemed to be calmed by the news that Germany was supportive of ECB moves. ECB has put plans forward for the Bank and the EFSF to buy bonds of debt laden EU countries to lower their borrowing costs.
THE WEEK AHEAD
Monday: Nothing to note Data wise
Tuesday: Nothing to note Data wise
Wednesday: US Existing Home Sales, FOMC Meeting, US Crude Inventories, China HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI
Thursday: EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI, EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI, US Employment Claims, US Flash Manufacturing PMI, US New Home Sales
Friday: US Core Durable Goods Orders
Economic news- Euro Sovereign Yields Fall as Markets Look to Central Banks for Stimulus
ECONOMIC NEWS
The yields on Italian debt have fallen over the last week, particularly in the short end. Yields on Spanish 10 years have managed to stay under the all important 7.00% mark which has been considered to be the point of no return. Comments from the ECB last week have supported the move into riskier assets. Whilst most of the economic data out is tending to be increasingly negative.
Most of the data out of China is showing signs of continued weakness and has seemed to miss market forecasts. Namely China is continuing to see weak trade data in the form of its Trade balance at 25.1bn vs a market forecast of 35.1bn and CPI has cooled off to only be 1.8%.
Whilst economic news out of US was a little light on the week the main focus has been markets looking to September as the possible time for further QE.
THE WEEK AHEAD
Monday: Nothing to note Data wise
Tuesday: German ZEW, EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment, EUR Flash GDP, German Prelim GDP, US Core Retail Sales, US PPI, US Retail Sales
Wednesday: US Core CPI, Empire State Manufacturing Index, US TIC flows, US IP, Crude Inventories
Thursday: EUR CPI, US Building Permits, US Unemployment Claims, US Housing Starts, US Philly Fed
Friday: German PPI, EUR Current Account, US Prelim Unvi of Mich Consumer Sentiment
Economic news- QE on hold for now, but Fed is ready to fire when its necessary
ECONOMIC NEWS
ECB President Mario Draghi announced on Thursday that the bank may undertake outright open market operations in an attempt to bring down the premium on the yields of peripheral European government bonds. ECB suggested it would be targeting in particular the short end of the curve. ECB also have indicated a readiness to do further unconventional measures to stimulate the Economic region. S&P have warned that economic risks in Italy have increased as they revise their economic risk score up to 5 from 4 and cut the ratings on 15 Italian institutions.
Across the Atlantic in the US as expected there was no change in interest rates at the FOMC. There was some change in FOMC language as they pledged to provide additional stimulus as needed. The consensus among analysts remains for further QE to be announced in September. On the data front worth a note was that the US ISM Manufacturing was quoted at 49.8 and for the second month to be showing a contraction. Whilst the employment data is not as clear as what some believe as the Unemployment rate has jumped to 8.3% versus a market forecast of 8.2%.
THE WEEK AHEAD
Monday: US Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
Tuesday: Italian Industrial Production, Italian Prelim GDP, German Factory Orders, UK Manufacturing Production, UK NIESR GDP Est, US Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
Wednesday: UK BOE Inflation Report, German IP, German 10Yr Bond Auction, US Crude Inventories, US 10Yr Bond Auction, China CPI, China PPI
Thursday: China Industrial Production, UK Trade balance, US Trade Balance, US Unemployment Claims
Friday: (Tentative) China Trade Balance, China New Loans, French IP, UK PPI Input, US Import Prices, US Federal Budget Balance
Economic news- Euro Zone optimism that ECB will do more & US GDP meets expectations
ECONOMIC NEWS
Main news was that late in the week ECB may be looking to act further to stimulate a worsening crisis in Europe.
US 2nd Qtr GDP was reported at +1.5% which translates to overall real growth and in line with market expectations,with further revisions down to Q1 from the previous reading of 2.2% to 1.9% as is currently stated for final Q1 numbers. On the net markets received this news with a sigh of relief as the burgeoning Euro crisis looks to be slowing growth in the global economy.
Earlier in the week saw Thursday’s housing data missed with New Home Sales printing -1.4% as markets expectations was for +0.6% with revisions also to previous data suggesting that Home sales are still not looking so strong and are volatile.
THE WEEK AHEAD
Monday: Spanish Flash GDP, Italian 10yr Bond Auctions
Tuesday: S&P Case Shiller Composite, Chicago PMI, CB Consumer Confidence, Chinese Manufacturing PMI, Chinese HSBC Final PMI
Wednesday: Spanish PMI, ADP Non Farms, ISM Manufacturing PMI, FOMC Statement, Fed Funds Rate Decision,
Thursday: ECB rate decision, ECB Press conference, US Unemployment Claims,
Friday: Non Farm Payrolls, Unemployment rate, ISM Non Manufacturing PMI
Economic news- The main economic news this week was out of the Euro zone.
ECONOMIC NEWS
The main economic news this week was out of the Euro zone. The continuing debt woes in Europe are once again making investors worry, as euro zone finance ministers agreed to lend up to 100 billion euros to Spain so it can shore up its banks.
Ten-year Spanish bond yields hit euro-era highs amid worries that the country will eventually run out of funds and need a Greek type bailout.
THE WEEK AHEAD
MONDAY: Chicago Fed nat’l activity index
TUESDAY: FHFA home price index, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, 2-yr note auction
WEDNESDAY: Weekly mortgage apps, new home sales, oil inventories, 5-yr note auction, USDA food prices outlook
THURSDAY: Durable goods orders, jobless claims, pending home sales, 7-yr note auction, CFTC emergency meeting
FRIDAY: GDP, consumer sentiment
The Week Ahead – 16th July
ECONOMIC NEWS
On the economic front, the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan July preliminary consumer sentiment index fell to 72. This is the lowest reading since the December’s print at 73.2.
Producer prices unexpectedly rose 0.1 percent in June. This comes even after energy prices fell sharply.
THE WEEK AHEAD
MONDAY: Retail sales, Empire state mfg survey, business inventories
TUESDAY: CPI, treasury int’l capital, industrial production, housing market index, Ben Bernanke speaks, Cleveland Fed Pres speaks
WEDNESDAY: Weekly mortgage apps, housing starts, Ben Bernanke speaks, Fed’s Beige Book
THURSDAY: Jobless claims, existing home sales, Philadelphia Fed survey, leading indicators
FRIDAY: No economic news scheduled.
Economic News and The Week Ahead
ECONOMIC NEWS
The big economic news was the NFP out of the US. Non-farm payrolls rose by 80,000, badly missing expectations for a gain of 90,000 jobs. The unemployment rate remained unchanged from May at 8.2. With yet another month of weak employment growth, Q2 marks the weakest 3 month period in two years. This is fueling sentiment that the Federal Reserve will step in with additional monetary easing. Other economic reports have been dismal with the ISM manufacturing index earlier this week indicating a contraction for the first time in nearly three years.
THE WEEK AHEAD
MONDAY: Fed Pres Rosengren, Evans, Williams speak, consumer credit
TUESDAY: NFIB small biz optimism index, 3-yr note auction
WEDNESDAY: Weekly mortgage apps, international trade, wholesale trade, oil inventories, 10-yr note auction, FOMC minutes
THURSDAY: Jobless claims, import & export prices, Fed Pres Williams speaks, 30-yr bond auction, Treasury budget
FRIDAY: PPI, consumer sentiment, Fed pres Lockhart speaks
Weekly Fundamental Analysis and The Week Ahead (1/7)
ECONOMIC NEWS
Consumer sentiment dipped to its lowest level this year, while consumer spending was flat in May.
The pace of business activity in the Midwest edged up in June.
THE WEEK AHEAD
MONDAY: ISM mfg index, construction spending
TUESDAY: Factory orders, auto sales; NYSE early close
WEDNESDAY: INDEPENDENCE DAY US MARKETS ARE CLOSED
THURSDAY: Weekly mortgage apps, Challenger job-cut report, ADP employment report, ISM non-mfg index, oil inventories, chain-store sales
FRIDAY: Non-farm payrolls
Binary Options Weekly Report (June 25- June 29 )
Markets
Stocks finished the final trading day of a weak Q2 with a huge upmove as EU leaders surprised with an agreement to help thier ailing banks.
The Dow logged its best June gain since 1997, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted their strongest since 1999 and 2000.
DJIA CHART
FOREX
Last week was wild for the US dollar, but the situation will only grow more complicated going forward. For most of this past week, the USD index was carving out a tedious range with no direction. That changed suddenly early Friday morning after the EU Summit statement tapped into any mention of mass stimulus that capital and traders are always expecting. As is usually the case with flashing headline with far-reaching implications, the speculative masses reacted first and saved questions about the details and scope of the development for later. Having suffered its biggest, loss since October 27, the dollar is now in a good position to be reviewed. The European officials mentioned an agenda that could significantly curb financial stress for the world’s greatest source of uncertainty. Considering the dollar is a currency that depends on being a safe haven, where we go from here depends on if the EU bought itself some good will.
USD Chart
COMMODITIES
Brent crude rose $6 to $97.36, having traded from $91.73 to $97.48. Crude was up $7.20 at $84.89, having traded from $78.28 to $85.28.
Oil Chart
EQUTIES
JPMorgan ended slightly lower as reports that regulators have stepped up scrutiny of the financial giant’s internal controls.
Facebook slipped following a report that Twitter is seeing more success on its mobile advertising. Also Macquarie initiated coverage of the social-media giant with a “neutral” rating and a $35 price target.
Fundamental News and Economic Calendar 25/6
ECONOMIC NEWS
This was a quiet week for economic reports as nothig major was released from the US or abroad.
THE WEEK AHEAD
Monday: EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (JUL), USD Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (MAY)
Tuesday: GBP Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. (YoY) (JUN)
Wednesday: EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN P), EUR German Consumer Price Index – EU Harmonised (YoY) (JUN P), USD Durable Goods Orders (MAY)
Thursday: EUR German June Unemployment Data Released by Federal Labor Agency (MAY), EUR German Unemployment Change (JUN), GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q F) and yearly, USD Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (1Q T), USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (QoQ) (1Q T),
Friday: CAD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (APR)
Binary Options Fundamental Analysis (18/6)
ECONOMIC NEWS
US consumer sentiment fell to a 6-month low in June.
Manufacturing in New York state fell to its lowest level since November. And industrial production slipped in May.
THE WEEK AHEAD
MONDAY: Housing market index, G20 summit
TUESDAY: Housing starts, FOMC meeting begins, Groupon shareholders mtg
WEDNESDAY: Weekly mortgage apps, oil inventories, FOMG mtg announcement, FOMC forecasts, Bernanke press conference
THURSDAY: Jobless claims, PMI manufacturing index flash, existing home sales, Philadelphia Fed survey, FHFA home price index, leading indicators
Fundamental Analysis- Economic Markets
ECONOMIC NEWS
The U.S. NFP report showed that the economy added just 69,000 new jobs in May while the unemployment rate grew to 8.2 percent. Economists had expected nonfarm payrolls to increase 150,000 and the jobless rate to hold steady at 8.1 percent.
THE WEEK AHEAD
MONDAY: Factory orders
TUESDAY: ISM non-mfg index
WEDNESDAY: Weekly mortgage apps, ECB announcement, productivity and costs, oil inventories, Fed’s Beige Book, Fed’s Lockhart speaks, Fed’s Lockhart speaks, Fed Basel III vote
THURSDAY: Bank of England announcement, jobless claims, Bernanke speaks, quarterly services survey, Fed’s Lockhart speaks, Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks, consumer credit
FRIDAY: International trade, wholesale trade, Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks
Economic News and the Week Ahead 28/5
ECONOMIC NEWS
Fairly quiet week. Consumer sentiment climbed in May to its best level since October 2007, with the index printing at 79.3.
THE WEEK AHEAD
MONDAY: Memorial Day- US MARKETS CLOSED
TUESDAY: S&P Case-Shiller home price index, consumer confidence, Dallas Fed mfg survey
WEDNESDAY: Mortgage apps, pending home sales
THURSDAY: Challenger job-cut report, ADP employment report, GDP, jobless claims, Fed’s Pianalto speaks
FRIDAY: Non-farm payrolls, personal income & outlays, ISM mfg index, construction spending, auto sales
Fundamental Analysis and the Week Ahead May 11
ECONOMIC NEWS
In the latest news from Greece, socialist party leader Evangelos Venizelos failed to form a coalition government after hosting last-minute talks. This news all but crushing earlier hopes that the debt-ridden nation would avoid another round of elections next month. According to the US Labor Department, producer prices posted a surprising drop in April as energy costs declined.
THE WEEK AHEAD
MONDAY:
TUESDAY: CPI, retail sales, Empire state mfg survey, Treasury international capital, business inventories, housing market index
WEDNESDAY: Weekly mortgage apps, housing starts, industrial production, oil inventories, FOMC minutes
THURSDAY: Jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed survey, e-commerce retail sales, leading indicators
FRIDAY:
| Novl | 0.00 | ||
| Microsoft Corpora | 34.34 | ||
| Intel Corporation | 24.05 | ||
| Pfizer, Inc. Comm | 28.92 | ||
| Google Inc. | 904.88 | ||
| Apple Inc. | 433.21 | ||
| Bp P.l.c. Common | 42.79 | ||
| General Electric | 23.27 | ||
| Exxon Mobil Corpo | 91.01 | ||
| Ebay Inc. | 56.85 | ||