The main play on the economic front this past week was to see the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index showing some improvement but still remains in contraction phase at -1.9 which beat market forecasts of -4.1 but this is the fifth straight month where manufacturing in the Philadelphia Fed region has continued to contract. The US existing home sales was also a brighter print at 4.82m also beating market expectations of 4.57m.
ECB’s OMT on hold until there is a request from Spain for EU help most market commentary is focused on EU rates and suggestions that maybe there is a rate cut that could come. Most of the data out of Europe has not been suggesting that the region is improving but it has actually beaten forecasts in most cases. The German ZEW came in at -18.2 above forecasts of -19.2 up from previous -25.5. Also German Flash Manufacturing showing continued contraction at 47.3 better than the 45.4 forecasts but there was a revision downward to the previous figure to 44.7. In short the pressures are still mounting in the region.
THE WEEK AHEAD
Monday: EUR German Ifo Business Climate,
Tuesday: EUR Gfk German Consumer Climate, ECB President Draghi Speaks, USD S&P/CS Composite -20 HPI, USD CB Consumer Confidence, USD Treasury Sec Geithner Speaks
Wednesday: EUR German Prelim CPI, EUR German 10-yr Bond Auction, USD New Home Sales, USD Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday: EUR German Unemployment Change, EUR M3 Money Supply, EUR Italian 10-yr Bond Auction, USD Core Durable Goods Orders, USD Unemployment Claims, USD Final GDP q/q, USD Pending Home Sales, China HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI
Friday: EUR German Retail Sales m/m, EUR CPI Flash Estimates, USD Core PCE Price Index, USD Personal Spending, USD Chicago PMI, USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment